Esteghlal FC 0–0 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Esteghlal FC

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sadd

2/7/2017

AFC Champions League · Play-offsAzadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Esteghlal FC50%

×Draw25%

Al Sadd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.05

Esteghlal FC

1.58

Al Sadd

1.05

Esteghlal FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

1.55

creates per match

1.26

0.85

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

1.55

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.85

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

75%

Esteghlal FC or Al Sadd

75%

Draw or Al Sadd

50%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

26%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

79%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

47%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

21%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

65%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

28%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

66%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

50%

level

25%

Al Sadd scores more

25%

Esteghlal FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

K. Heydari← V. Ghafouri

65'

Hassan Khalid← Ali Assadalla

82'

F. Esmaeili← M. Haghdoust

90'

Khalfan Ibrahim← J. Hamroun

100'

M. Karimi← B. Barzay

Esteghlal

Al

1

13

12

88

66

3

2

6

5

▼

Hamroun

8

▼

Assadalla

11

Bounedjah

1

Rahmati

21

▼

90

3

18

6

24

9

77

▼

Barzay

17

Ghorbani

74

▼

Haghdoust

Manager: A. Mansourian

32'▲K. Heydari←▼V. Ghafouri

82'▲F. Esmaeili←▼M. Haghdoust

100'▲M. Karimi←▼B. Barzay

Esteghlal FC substitutes

2Heydari88Esmaeili28Karimi8Karimi22Hosseini33Hosseini14Bagheri

Manager: Jesualdo Ferreira

65'▲Hassan Khalid←▼Ali Assadalla

90'▲Khalfan Ibrahim←▼J. Hamroun

Al Sadd substitutes

10Khalid14Ibrahim70Sanhaji27Medany20Hajri19Hassunin22Naim