Al Sadd 2–2 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Esteghlal FC

B. Bounedjah 90+2' (pen)

Akram Afif 27'

M. Tabrizi 49'

R. Bagheri 32'

9/17/2018

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsJassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al Sadd50%

×Draw23%

Esteghlal FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.25

Al Sadd

1.81

Esteghlal FC

1.25

Al Sadd creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

2.06

creates per match

1.35

1.15

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

74%

Al Sadd or Esteghlal FC

77%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

50%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

28%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

84%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

54%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

27%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

71%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

36%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

66%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Sadd scores more

50%

level

23%

Esteghlal FC scores more

26%

Al Sadd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Bounedjah

Al Sadd · F

8.1

Match Events

22'

Roozbeh Cheshmi

27'

Akram Afif↳ B. Bounedjah

32'

R. Bagheri↳ Humam Tariq

46'

A. Sayyadmanesh← M. Ghaedi

49'

M. Tabrizi↳ F. Esmaeili

50'

Roozbeh Cheshmi

50'

Roozbeh Cheshmi

56'

A. Sohrabian← R. Bagheri

70'

Yasser Aboubaker Essa← Hassan Al Heidos

76'

V. Ghafouri← Humam Tariq

80'

Yasser Aboubaker Essa

86'

Farshid Esmaeili

90'

Mehdi Rahmati

90+4'

Ali Assadalla← Abdelkarim Hassan

90+4'

Salem Al Hajri← Jung Woo-Young

90+2'

B. BounedjahPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlEsteghlal

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots10

5Corners9

20Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target4

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

479Total Passes375

418Accurate Passes301

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3