Esteghlal FC 1–1 Al-Duhail SC: Result & Stats

Esteghlal FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Duhail SC

5/6/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Esteghlal FC47%

×Draw24%

Al-Duhail SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Duhail SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.24

Esteghlal FC

1.64

Al-Duhail SC

1.24

Esteghlal FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.55

creates per match

1.62

0.85

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

1.55

Al-Duhail SC

1.62

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.85

Al-Duhail SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al-Duhail SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

71%

Esteghlal FC or Al-Duhail SC

76%

Draw or Al-Duhail SC

53%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

24%

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

81%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

49%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

23%

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

71%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

35%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al-Duhail SC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.62 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

47%

level

24%

Al-Duhail SC scores more

29%

Esteghlal FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff