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Al-Duhail SC vs Esteghlal FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
3/5/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Duhail SC49%
×Draw23%
Esteghlal FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Duhail SC
1.88
Esteghlal FC
1.38

Al-Duhail SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC
2.21
Esteghlal FC
1.35

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC
1.41
Esteghlal FC
1.55

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw
72%
Al-Duhail SC or Esteghlal FC
77%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
51%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
27%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
85%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
56%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
29%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
75%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
40%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
63%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.88

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more
49%
level
23%
Esteghlal FC scores more
28%

Al-Duhail SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Duhail SC vs Esteghlal FC

Al-Duhail SC beat Esteghlal FC 3-0 in AFC Champions League on March 5, 2019.

The match was played at Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.