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Esteghlal FC vs Al Ain — AFC Champions League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ain
Al Ain
3/12/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Esteghlal FC52%
×Draw25%
Al Ain24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.65
Al Ain
1.03

Esteghlal FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.55
Al Ain
1.21

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.85
Al Ain
1.75

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
76%
Esteghlal FC or Al Ain
75%
Draw or Al Ain
48%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
28%
Al Ain wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
81%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
49%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
23%
Al Ain 1+ goals
64%
Al Ain 2+ goals
28%
Al Ain 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
69%
Al Ain (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al Ain defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al Ain attack 1.21 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Al Ain scores more
24%

Esteghlal FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Esteghlal FC 1–1 Al Ain

Esteghlal FC and Al Ain drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on March 12, 2018.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.