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Al Ain vs Esteghlal FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Ain
Al Ain
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
5/20/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al Ain42%
×Draw23%
Esteghlal FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ain
1.70
Esteghlal FC
1.52

Al Ain creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al Ain
1.85
Esteghlal FC
1.35

allows per match

Al Ain
1.69
Esteghlal FC
1.55

finishing

Al Ain+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ain ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al Ain or draw
65%
Al Ain or Esteghlal FC
77%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
58%

Winning margin

Al Ain wins by 2+
22%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Ain 1+ goals
82%
Al Ain 2+ goals
51%
Al Ain 3+ goals
24%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
78%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
45%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Ain (draw refunded)
55%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ain at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ain attack 1.85 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al Ain defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ain scores more
42%
level
23%
Esteghlal FC scores more
35%

Al Ain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al Ain 1–2 Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Al Ain 2-1 in AFC Champions League on May 20, 2019.

The match was played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain.