Esteghlal FC 3–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Esteghlal FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

9/23/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Esteghlal FC41%

×Draw26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.22

Esteghlal FC

1.39

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.22

Esteghlal FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.55

creates per match

1.58

0.85

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

1.55

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.58

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

67%

Esteghlal FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah

74%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

59%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

75%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

40%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

16%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

70%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

34%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

55%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

41%

level

26%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

33%

Esteghlal FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff