Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Esteghlal FC

12/2/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah53%

×Draw23%

Esteghlal FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.16

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.83

Esteghlal FC

1.16

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

2.12

creates per match

1.35

0.96

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.12

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.96

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

76%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Esteghlal FC

77%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

47%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

30%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

84%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

54%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

28%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

69%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

32%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

69%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.12 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

53%

level

23%

Esteghlal FC scores more

24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff