Este 1–2 Atletico Castegnato: Result & Stats

Este

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Castegnato

10/22/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Este49%

×Draw26%

Atletico Castegnato26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteExpected goals in this matchAtletico Castegnato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Este

1.54

Atletico Castegnato

1.04

Este creates 48% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

1.06

1.03

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Este

1.36

Atletico Castegnato

1.06

allows per match

Este

1.03

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Este+0.00on par

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Atletico Castegnato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Este or draw

74%

Este or Atletico Castegnato

74%

Draw or Atletico Castegnato

51%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals

79%

Este 2+ goals

45%

Este 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Este scores more

49%

level

26%

Atletico Castegnato scores more

26%

Este at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff