Atletico Castegnato 1–1 Este: Result & Stats

Atletico Castegnato

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Este

A. Bertazzoli 19'

A. Giacomazzi 66'

2/25/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 24Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato33%

×Draw26%

Este41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico CastegnatoExpected goals in this matchEste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.40

Atletico Castegnato

1.24

Este

1.40

Este creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

1.24

creates per match

1.09

1.71

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.24

Este

1.09

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

Este

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw

59%

Atletico Castegnato or Este

74%

Draw or Este

67%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

14%

Este wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

13%

Este 1+ goals

75%

Este 2+ goals

41%

Este 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

45%

Este (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Este attack 1.09 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more

33%

level

26%

Este scores more

41%

Este at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Bertazzoli

66'

A. Giacomazzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff