Estac Troyes 0–0 Concarneau: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Concarneau

10/21/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Estac Troyes50%

×Draw26%

Concarneau23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchConcarneau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.91

Estac Troyes

1.48

Concarneau

0.91

Estac Troyes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

0.84

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.59

Concarneau

0.84

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.97

Concarneau

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Concarneau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

77%

Estac Troyes or Concarneau

74%

Draw or Concarneau

50%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

25%

Concarneau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

77%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

43%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

19%

Concarneau 1+ goals

60%

Concarneau 2+ goals

23%

Concarneau 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

68%

Concarneau (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.59 + Concarneau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Concarneau attack 0.84 + Estac Troyes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

50%

level

26%

Concarneau scores more

23%

Estac Troyes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

D. Alemdar

Estac Troyes · G

8.2

Match Events

11'

15'

35'

57'

63'

68'

Y. Merdji← N. Ndombasi

68'

G. Barès← A. Phliponeau

69'

B. Mouazan← A. Urié

81'

M. Diop← L. Ilić

82'

A. Bruus← Y. MChangama

83'

Junior Olaitan

84'

I. Matondo← N. Chadli

90'

Doğan Alemdar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacConcarneau

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots21

1Corners6

6Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots21

3On Target5

3Off Target7

2Blocked9

7Inside Box13

1Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

414Total Passes543

339Accurate Passes483

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1