Concarneau 1–0 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

Concarneau

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estac Troyes

1/23/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Francis-Le Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau30%

×Draw27%

Estac Troyes43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcarneauExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.38

Concarneau

1.09

Estac Troyes

1.38

Estac Troyes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 105 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

1.63

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Concarneau

1.21

Estac Troyes

1.14

allows per match

Concarneau

1.63

Estac Troyes

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw

57%

Concarneau or Estac Troyes

73%

Draw or Estac Troyes

70%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+

12%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals

66%

Concarneau 2+ goals

30%

Concarneau 3+ goals

10%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

75%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

40%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)

41%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concarneau scores more

30%

level

27%

Estac Troyes scores more

43%

Estac Troyes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff