Estac Troyes 1–2 Bordeaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Estac Troyes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bordeaux

12/12/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Estac Troyes42%

×Draw26%

Bordeaux32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchBordeaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.24

Estac Troyes

1.44

Bordeaux

1.24

Estac Troyes creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.35

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.00

Bordeaux

1.13

allows per match

Estac Troyes

1.35

Bordeaux

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Bordeaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

68%

Estac Troyes or Bordeaux

74%

Draw or Bordeaux

58%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

20%

Bordeaux wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

76%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

42%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

18%

Bordeaux 1+ goals

71%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

35%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

56%

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.00 + Bordeaux defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bordeaux attack 1.13 + Estac Troyes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

42%

level

26%

Bordeaux scores more

32%

Estac Troyes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff