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Bordeaux vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Bordeaux
Bordeaux
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
12/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux44%
×Draw28%
Estac Troyes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordeaux
1.29
Estac Troyes
0.95

Bordeaux creates 36% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 105 away

creates per match

Bordeaux
1.59
Estac Troyes
1.14

allows per match

Bordeaux
0.76
Estac Troyes
0.98

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw
73%
Bordeaux or Estac Troyes
72%
Draw or Estac Troyes
56%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+
20%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals
72%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
37%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
14%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
61%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
25%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)
62%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bordeaux scores more
44%
level
28%
Estac Troyes scores more
27%

Bordeaux at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bordeaux 0–1 Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat Bordeaux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux.