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Essentuki vs Tuapse — Second League - Group 1 2020

Essentuki
Essentuki
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Tuapse
Tuapse
10/11/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Essentuki36%
×Draw21%
Tuapse43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essentuki
1.89
Tuapse
2.07

Tuapse creates 10% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Essentuki
0.77
Tuapse
1.09

allows per match

Essentuki
3.05
Tuapse
3.00

finishing

Essentuki+0.00on par
Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essentuki ↓

Tuapse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Essentuki or draw
57%
Essentuki or Tuapse
79%
Draw or Tuapse
64%

Winning margin

Essentuki wins by 2+
19%
Tuapse wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Essentuki 1+ goals
85%
Essentuki 2+ goals
56%
Essentuki 3+ goals
29%
Tuapse 1+ goals
87%
Tuapse 2+ goals
61%
Tuapse 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Essentuki (draw refunded)
46%
Tuapse (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essentuki at home — creates 0.77, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essentuki attack 0.77 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Essentuki scores more
36%
level
21%
Tuapse scores more
43%

Tuapse at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tuapse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Essentuki vs Tuapse

Tuapse beat Essentuki 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 11, 2021.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.