Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Essentuki vs Tuapse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Essentuki
Essentuki
FT
4 – 2
Tuapse
Tuapse
2/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Essentuki39%
×Draw19%
Tuapse42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essentuki
2.32
Tuapse
2.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Essentuki
1.44
Tuapse
1.80

allows per match

Essentuki
3.00
Tuapse
3.20

finishing

Essentuki+0.00on par
Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essentuki ↓

Tuapse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Essentuki or draw
58%
Essentuki or Tuapse
81%
Draw or Tuapse
61%

Winning margin

Essentuki wins by 2+
22%
Tuapse wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Essentuki 1+ goals
90%
Essentuki 2+ goals
67%
Essentuki 3+ goals
40%
Tuapse 1+ goals
91%
Tuapse 2+ goals
69%
Tuapse 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Essentuki (draw refunded)
48%
Tuapse (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essentuki at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essentuki attack 1.44 + Tuapse defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.32

Tuapse attack 1.80 + Essentuki defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Essentuki scores more
39%
level
19%
Tuapse scores more
42%

Tuapse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tuapse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Essentuki vs Tuapse

Essentuki beat Tuapse 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 26, 2021.