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Esperance Tunis vs Al-Ittihad — CAF Champions League 2019

Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
10/24/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esperance Tunis48%
×Draw33%
Al-Ittihad19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esperance Tunis
1.08
Al-Ittihad
0.56

Esperance Tunis creates 93% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 3 away

creates per match

Esperance Tunis
1.50
Al-Ittihad
0.67

allows per match

Esperance Tunis
0.45
Al-Ittihad
0.67

finishing

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperance Tunis ↓

Al-Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esperance Tunis or draw
81%
Esperance Tunis or Al-Ittihad
67%
Draw or Al-Ittihad
52%

Winning margin

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
20%
Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
66%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
29%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
10%
Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
43%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
11%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
72%
Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperance Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Al-Ittihad away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperance Tunis attack 1.50 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al-Ittihad attack 0.67 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Esperance Tunis scores more
48%
level
33%
Al-Ittihad scores more
19%

Esperance Tunis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esperance Tunis vs Al-Ittihad

Esperance Tunis beat Al-Ittihad 1-0 in CAF Champions League on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.