Al-Ittihad 0–0 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esperance Tunis

10/17/2021

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundMartyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Ittihad46%

×Draw32%

Esperance Tunis22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-IttihadExpected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.68

Al-Ittihad

1.11

Esperance Tunis

0.68

Al-Ittihad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

0.33

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Al-Ittihad

1.33

Esperance Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Al-Ittihad

0.33

Esperance Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad or draw

78%

Al-Ittihad or Esperance Tunis

68%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

54%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad wins by 2+

19%

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad 1+ goals

67%

Al-Ittihad 2+ goals

30%

Al-Ittihad 3+ goals

10%

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

49%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

15%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)

67%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad attack 1.33 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Ittihad scores more

46%

level

32%

Esperance Tunis scores more

22%

Al-Ittihad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff