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ESMTK vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

ESMTK
ESMTK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
3/10/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 19ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ESMTK63%
×Draw21%
Kecskeméti TE II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMTK
1.93
Kecskeméti TE II
0.85

ESMTK creates 127% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

ESMTK
2.22
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

ESMTK
0.60
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw
84%
ESMTK or Kecskeméti TE II
79%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
37%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+
38%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals
85%
ESMTK 2+ goals
57%
ESMTK 3+ goals
30%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
57%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
21%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)
80%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ESMTK scores more
63%
level
21%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
16%

ESMTK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: ESMTK 1–0 Kecskeméti TE II

ESMTK beat Kecskeméti TE II 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at ESMTK Stadion in Budapest.