ESMTK 3–0 Kecskeméti TE II: Result & Stats

ESMTK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kecskeméti TE II

4/23/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 33ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ESMTK58%

×Draw22%

Kecskeméti TE II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMTKExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.09

ESMTK

1.98

Kecskeméti TE II

1.09

ESMTK creates 82% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

1.71

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

ESMTK

1.71

Kecskeméti TE II

1.18

allows per match

ESMTK

1.00

Kecskeméti TE II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw

79%

ESMTK or Kecskeméti TE II

78%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

42%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+

34%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals

86%

ESMTK 2+ goals

59%

ESMTK 3+ goals

31%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

66%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

30%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)

74%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 56 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 1.71 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + ESMTK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ESMTK scores more

58%

level

22%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

21%

ESMTK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff