Eskişehirspor 0–5 Giresunspor: Result & Stats

Eskişehirspor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Giresunspor

M. Ertürk 88'

I. Baldé 71', 25'

H. Bilazer 43'

E. Tozlu 7'

4/9/2021

1. Lig · Round 29Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eskişehirspor34%

×Draw27%

Giresunspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskişehirsporExpected goals in this matchGiresunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.35

Eskişehirspor

1.22

Giresunspor

1.35

Giresunspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 69 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

1.70

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Eskişehirspor

0.93

Giresunspor

1.00

allows per match

Eskişehirspor

1.70

Giresunspor

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Giresunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw

60%

Eskişehirspor or Giresunspor

73%

Draw or Giresunspor

66%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

14%

Giresunspor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

70%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

34%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

12%

Giresunspor 1+ goals

74%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

39%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

46%

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 0.93 + Giresunspor defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more

34%

level

27%

Giresunspor scores more

40%

Giresunspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Giresunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

K. Kalafat

Giresunspor · D

8.2

Match Events

7'

25'

40'

43'

45'

46'

U. Kızılkaya← S. Çiftkanatlı

46'

O. Arı← N. Karaca

46'

S. Karaduman← S. Piçinciol

55'

R. Traoré← Serginho

55'

C. Bağ← E. Tozlu

64'

71'

73'

85'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EskişehirsporGiresunspor

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots12

2Corners7

4Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots12

1On Target7

6Off Target4

1Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

483Total Passes578

390Accurate Passes491

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

1. Lig: Eskişehirspor 0–5 Giresunspor

Giresunspor beat Eskişehirspor 5-0 in 1. Lig on April 9, 2021.

Goals: E. Tozlu (7'), I. Baldé (25', 71'), H. Bilazer (43'), M. Ertürk (88').

Giresunspor controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.

Eskişehirspor vs Giresunspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Eskişehirspor 0–5 Giresunspor