Eskişehirspor 0–2 Giresunspor: Result & Stats

Eskişehirspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Giresunspor

Y. Del Valle 84'

A. Kesim 30'

3/7/2020

1. Lig · Round 26Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eskişehirspor34%

×Draw27%

Giresunspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskişehirsporExpected goals in this matchGiresunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.35

Eskişehirspor

1.22

Giresunspor

1.35

Giresunspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 69 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

1.70

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Eskişehirspor

0.93

Giresunspor

1.00

allows per match

Eskişehirspor

1.70

Giresunspor

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Giresunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw

60%

Eskişehirspor or Giresunspor

73%

Draw or Giresunspor

66%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

14%

Giresunspor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

70%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

34%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

12%

Giresunspor 1+ goals

74%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

39%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

46%

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 0.93 + Giresunspor defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more

34%

level

27%

Giresunspor scores more

40%

Giresunspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Giresunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

23'

30'

46'

46'

46'

56'

M. Taş← M. Milinković

66'

Renan Foguinho← B. Yılmaz

84'

Y. Del Valle↳ M. Güven

85'

Mevlüt Çelik

85'

E. Akdarı← B. Altunbaş

85'

Ö. Özcan← R. Rusescu

86'

Guy-Michel Landel

86'

Mehmet Taş

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EskişehirsporGiresunspor

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots8

7Corners4

19Fouls21

Shots

7Total Shots8

2On Target6

5Off Target2

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3