Eskişehirspor 0–2 Beykoz Anadolu: Result & Stats

Eskişehirspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Beykoz Anadolu

Thuram 69'

O. Kurt 59'

12/8/2020

1. Lig · Round 13Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eskişehirspor32%

×Draw26%

Beykoz Anadolu42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskişehirsporExpected goals in this matchBeykoz Anadolu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.42

Eskişehirspor

1.20

Beykoz Anadolu

1.42

Beykoz Anadolu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 69 away

0.93

creates per match

1.13

1.70

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Eskişehirspor

0.93

Beykoz Anadolu

1.13

allows per match

Eskişehirspor

1.70

Beykoz Anadolu

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw

58%

Eskişehirspor or Beykoz Anadolu

74%

Draw or Beykoz Anadolu

68%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

13%

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

70%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

34%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

12%

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

76%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

41%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

43%

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 0.93 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more

32%

level

26%

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

42%

Beykoz Anadolu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Özgenç

Beykoz Anadolu · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

33'

47'

54'

56'

56'

59'

69'

Thuram↳ A. Yazar

75'

Yasin Güreler

77'

K. Gül← T. Yakut

77'

F. Öztorun← İ. Konuk

81'

Sezgin Coşkun

86'

Ferhat Öztorun

90'

T. Erdoğan← H. Sholaja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EskişehirsporBeykoz

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots10

5Corners2

20Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target5

6Off Target3

0Blocked2

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

281Total Passes528

181Accurate Passes427

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4