Beykoz Anadolu 5–2 Eskişehirspor: Result & Stats

Beykoz Anadolu

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Eskişehirspor

Thuram 70', 49' (pen), 46'

A. Morkaya 55'

G. Kaya 42'

O. Arı 45+2', 15'

4/13/2021

1. Lig · Round 3015 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu56%

×Draw22%

Eskişehirspor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beykoz AnadoluExpected goals in this matchEskişehirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.13

Beykoz Anadolu

1.94

Eskişehirspor

1.13

Beykoz Anadolu creates 72% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

1.36

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.24

Eskişehirspor

0.89

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.36

Eskişehirspor

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Eskişehirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw

78%

Beykoz Anadolu or Eskişehirspor

78%

Draw or Eskişehirspor

44%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

33%

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

86%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

58%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

30%

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

68%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

31%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

72%

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eskişehirspor attack 0.89 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

56%

level

22%

Eskişehirspor scores more

22%

Beykoz Anadolu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

97

Alan Cariús

Beykoz Anadolu · M

8.5

Match Events

15'

39'

42'

45+2'

46'

46'

A. Morkaya← M. Gönülaçar

46'

Thuram↳ M. Pučko

48'

Emir Omurtak

49'

ThuramPenalty

53'

S. Çiftkanatlı← U. Semizoğlu

54'

B. Altunbaş← U. Kızılkaya

55'

A. Morkaya↳ Alan Cariús

69'

N. Karaca← B. Göçmen

70'

Thuram↳ Alan Cariús

73'

A. Okumuş← E. Yıldız

80'

A. Čajič← Alan Cariús

87'

M. Sarıkaya← G. Kaya

90+1'

M. Bulut← F. Öztorun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeykozEskişehirspor

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots15

3Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots15

9On Target4

9Off Target8

1Blocked3

18Inside Box6

1Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

387Total Passes329

292Accurate Passes222

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

6Offsides0