Eskişehirspor 1–4 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Eskişehirspor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Adana Demirspor

İ. Öner 48'

H. Kılıç 57'

T. Sanuç 54'

Mehmet Akyüz 35'

V. Şen 11'

3/16/2020

1. Lig · Round 28Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eskişehirspor40%

×Draw24%

Adana Demirspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskişehirsporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.45

Eskişehirspor

1.55

Adana Demirspor

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 69 away

0.93

creates per match

1.20

1.70

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Eskişehirspor

0.93

Adana Demirspor

1.20

allows per match

Eskişehirspor

1.70

Adana Demirspor

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw

64%

Eskişehirspor or Adana Demirspor

76%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

60%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

20%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

79%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

46%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

20%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

77%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

42%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

53%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.16 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 0.93 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Adana Demirspor attack 1.20 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more

40%

level

24%

Adana Demirspor scores more

36%

Eskişehirspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eskişehirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Şen↳ E. Zengin

35'

Mehmet Akyüz↳ H. Kılıç

37'

Ekrem Kılıçarslan

41'

Mehmet Feyzi Yildirim

45'

Tarık Çamdal

46'

M. Altunbaş← F. Balaban

48'

54'

57'

59'

59'

59'

62'

62'

62'

69'

70'

72'

76'

J. Rassoul← T. Çamdal

80'

88'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EskişehirsporAdana

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots12

4Corners0

12Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots12

3On Target8

2Off Target4

Passing

38%Possession62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

0Offsides4