Adana Demirspor 4–0 Eskişehirspor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eskişehirspor

B. Yıldız 81'

M. Özcan 73' (OG)

G. Güzel 30'

H. Kage 13'

9/30/2018

1. Lig · Round 75 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Adana Demirspor55%

×Draw21%

Eskişehirspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchEskişehirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.43

Adana Demirspor

2.19

Eskişehirspor

1.43

Adana Demirspor creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 46 away

1.74

creates per match

0.89

1.96

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

1.74

Eskişehirspor

0.89

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.96

Eskişehirspor

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Eskişehirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

75%

Adana Demirspor or Eskişehirspor

79%

Draw or Eskişehirspor

45%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

33%

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

89%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

64%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

37%

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

76%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

42%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

69%

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.96 · 69 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.19

Eskişehirspor attack 0.89 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

55%

level

21%

Eskişehirspor scores more

25%

Adana Demirspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

31'

46'

61'

70'

73'

M. ÖzcanOwn goal

78'

K. Gül← M. Yıldırım

80'

B. Karadeniz← E. Öztürk

81'

B. Yıldız↳ İ. Konuk

Shots

Statistics

AdanaEskişehirspor

Overview

4Total Shots0

Shots

4Total Shots0

4On Target0

Discipline

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0