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Eskilstuna United W vs KIF Örebro W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Eskilstuna United W
Eskilstuna United W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
9/28/2020DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 16Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eskilstuna United W52%
×Draw25%
KIF Örebro W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskilstuna United W
1.64
KIF Örebro W
1.01

Eskilstuna United W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 62 away

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W
1.39
KIF Örebro W
0.90

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W
1.12
KIF Örebro W
1.89

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw
77%
Eskilstuna United W or KIF Örebro W
75%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
48%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+
28%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals
81%
Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals
49%
Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals
23%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
64%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
27%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)
69%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more
52%
level
25%
KIF Örebro W scores more
23%

Eskilstuna United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs KIF Örebro W

Eskilstuna United W beat KIF Örebro W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on September 28, 2020.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.