Eskilstuna United W 6–1 Bromölla W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bromölla W

T. Youhana 83'

F. Eriksson 78'

A. Larsson 76', 53'

A. Benediktsson 69'

M. Selling 16'

E. Olofsson 86'

11/4/2023

Elitettan · Round 25Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eskilstuna United W59%

×Draw21%

Bromölla W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchBromölla W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.07

Eskilstuna United W

2.00

Bromölla W

1.07

Eskilstuna United W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

1.23

0.92

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Bromölla W

1.23

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

0.92

Bromölla W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Bromölla W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Bromölla W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

80%

Eskilstuna United W or Bromölla W

79%

Draw or Bromölla W

41%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

35%

Bromölla W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

86%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

59%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

32%

Bromölla W 1+ goals

66%

Bromölla W 2+ goals

29%

Bromölla W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

75%

Bromölla W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Bromölla W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.85 + Bromölla W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bromölla W attack 1.23 + Eskilstuna United W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

59%

level

21%

Bromölla W scores more

20%

Eskilstuna United W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Selling

46'

C. Eriksson← A. Vigholm

53'

A. Larsson

69'

A. Benediktsson

76'

A. Larsson

77'

M. Holgersson← M. Said

77'

M. Larsson← E. Järvensivu

78'

F. Eriksson

80'

A. Wallmark← J. Miclat

80'

H. Walter← F. Eriksson

80'

T. Youhana← L. Duras

83'

T. Youhana

86'

E. Olofsson

Eskilstuna

Bromölla

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Eriksson

⚽

Selling

▼

Vigholm

Manager: V. Barsley

46'▲C. Eriksson←▼A. Vigholm

80'▲A. Wallmark←▼J. Miclat

80'▲H. Walter←▼F. Eriksson

80'▲T. Youhana←▼L. Duras

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

ErikssonWallmarkWalterYouhanaNondoCollinDelerud

Manager: M. Senften

77'▲M. Holgersson←▼M. Said

77'▲M. Larsson←▼E. Järvensivu

Bromölla W substitutes

HolgerssonLarssonJärvensivuWallnerHansson

Elitettan: Eskilstuna United W 6–1 Bromölla W

Eskilstuna United W beat Bromölla W 6-1 in Elitettan on November 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Selling (16'), A. Larsson (53', 76'), A. Benediktsson (69'), F. Eriksson (78'), T. Youhana (83'), E. Olofsson (86').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

Eskilstuna United W vs Bromölla W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Eskilstuna United W 6–1 Bromölla W