Bromölla W 1–1 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Bromölla W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eskilstuna United W

M. Jävergren 58' (OG)

M. Alvin 36'

5/6/2023

Elitettan · Round 5Strandängens IP A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bromölla W33%

×Draw22%

Eskilstuna United W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bromölla WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.85

Bromölla W

1.57

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Eskilstuna United W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

1.38

creates per match

1.82

1.88

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Bromölla W

1.38

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Bromölla W

1.88

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bromölla W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromölla W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bromölla W or draw

56%

Bromölla W or Eskilstuna United W

78%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

67%

Winning margin

Bromölla W wins by 2+

16%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bromölla W 1+ goals

79%

Bromölla W 2+ goals

46%

Bromölla W 3+ goals

21%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

84%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

55%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bromölla W (draw refunded)

43%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromölla W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromölla W attack 1.38 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Bromölla W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bromölla W scores more

33%

level

22%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

44%

Eskilstuna United W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

M. Alvin

58'

M. JävergrenOwn goal

63'

E. Smajic

70'

M. Nivard← M. Said

70'

V. Metaj← E. Järvensivu

71'

A. Vigholm← P. McAllister

71'

S. Dahl Forslund← M. Selling

81'

E. Johansson← M. Alvin

89'

J. Miclat

Bromölla

Eskilstuna

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: P. Persson

70'▲M. Nivard←▼M. Said

70'▲V. Metaj←▼E. Järvensivu

Bromölla W substitutes

NivardMetajHolgerssonWallnerHansson

Manager: V. Barsley

71'▲A. Vigholm←▼P. McAllister

71'▲S. Dahl Forslund←▼M. Selling

81'▲E. Johansson←▼M. Alvin

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

VigholmForslundJohanssonDelerudZetterbergIngårda