Eskilsminne 2–2 Ariana: Result & Stats

Eskilsminne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ariana

O. Khattab 69'

A. Arshad 45'

V. Andersson 31'

E. Karaman 22'

5/17/2025

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 8Harlyckan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eskilsminne47%

×Draw24%

Ariana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskilsminneExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.24

Eskilsminne

1.67

Ariana

1.24

Eskilsminne creates 35% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

1.71

creates per match

1.11

1.36

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Eskilsminne

1.71

Ariana

1.11

allows per match

Eskilsminne

1.36

Ariana

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw

72%

Eskilsminne or Ariana

76%

Draw or Ariana

53%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+

25%

Ariana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals

81%

Eskilsminne 2+ goals

50%

Eskilsminne 3+ goals

23%

Ariana 1+ goals

71%

Ariana 2+ goals

35%

Ariana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)

62%

Ariana (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 1.71 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ariana attack 1.11 + Eskilsminne defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eskilsminne scores more

47%

level

24%

Ariana scores more

28%

Eskilsminne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eskilsminne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

22'

31'

45'

46'

V. Kristiansson← V. Castro

52'

H. Lindahl

59'

A. Sandstrom

61'

L. Wettergren← A. Sandstrom

61'

P. Simba← V. Andersson

69'

O. Khattab

70'

N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby← J. Koci

79'

E. Mehmed← E. Karaman

90+2'

A. Arshad

Eskilsminne

Ariana

1

2

4

16

8

6

7

▼

Sandstrom

10

Reuterski

22

⚽

▼

Karaman

77

▼

Castro

99

⚽

▼

31

9

3

4

10

16

17

21

⚽

Khattab

25

Albin

28

▼

Koci

18

⚽

Arshad

Manager: I. Kaljic

70'▲N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby←▼J. Koci

Eskilsminne substitutes

5Svensson22Lernesjo23Kallmeby27Palsson30Bulow

Manager: A. Grimberg

46'▲V. Kristiansson←▼V. Castro

61'▲L. Wettergren←▼A. Sandstrom

61'▲P. Simba←▼V. Andersson

79'▲E. Mehmed←▼E. Karaman

Ariana substitutes

25Lubwama3Bjurnemark5Bunjaku12Mehmed14Wettergren20Simba36Kristiansson

Ettan - Södra: Eskilsminne 2–2 Ariana

Eskilsminne and Ariana drew 2-2 in Ettan - Södra on May 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Karaman (22'), V. Andersson (31'), A. Arshad (45'), O. Khattab (69').

The match was played at Harlyckan in Helsingborg.

Eskilsminne vs Ariana — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Eskilsminne 2–2 Ariana