Ariana 2–1 Eskilsminne: Result & Stats

Ariana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eskilsminne

K. Kizito 81'

A. Reuterskiöld 37'

R. Thomasson 19' (pen)

9/9/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 21Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ariana50%

×Draw24%

Eskilsminne27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchEskilsminne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

Ariana

1.73

Eskilsminne

1.20

Ariana creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

1.80

creates per match

1.20

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ariana

1.80

Eskilsminne

1.20

allows per match

Ariana

1.20

Eskilsminne

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Eskilsminne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

73%

Ariana or Eskilsminne

76%

Draw or Eskilsminne

50%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

27%

Eskilsminne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

82%

Ariana 2+ goals

52%

Ariana 3+ goals

25%

Eskilsminne 1+ goals

70%

Eskilsminne 2+ goals

34%

Eskilsminne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

65%

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Eskilsminne defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Eskilsminne attack 1.20 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ariana scores more

50%

level

24%

Eskilsminne scores more

27%

Ariana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

R. ThomassonPenalty

37'

A. Reuterskiöld

67'

A. Reinholdsson← C. Seger

67'

69'

69'

78'

81'

83'

I. Hussein← A. Reuterskiöld

83'

A. Svensson← Y. Getachew

83'

E. Larsson← L. Ohlander

84'

M. Hamdan← H. Andersson

84'

T. Holmkvist← L. Minter Wettergren

90+5'

M. Ellborg

Ariana

Eskilsminne

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Reuterski

▼

Khalid

Manager: C. Hotait

69'▲K. Kizito←▼O. Khalid

69'▲E. Mehmed←▼S. Fröjdh

83'▲I. Hussein←▼A. Reuterskiöld

84'▲M. Hamdan←▼H. Andersson

84'▲T. Holmkvist←▼L. Minter Wettergren

Ariana substitutes

KizitoMehmedHusseinHamdanHolmkvistDahlbergEgly

Manager: P. Ingelsten

67'▲A. Reinholdsson←▼C. Seger

67'▲H. Stoltz←▼E. Ibishi

83'▲A. Svensson←▼Y. Getachew

83'▲E. Larsson←▼L. Ohlander

Eskilsminne substitutes

ReinholdssonStoltzSvenssonLarssonLindahlLomsten

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 2–1 Eskilsminne

Ariana beat Eskilsminne 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on September 9, 2023.

Goals: R. Thomasson (19' pen), A. Reuterskiöld (37'), K. Kizito (81').

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.

Ariana vs Eskilsminne — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 2–1 Eskilsminne