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Esenler Erokspor vs Sarıyer — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
16:00
Sarıyer
Sarıyer
8/16/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Esenler Stadium
53%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
53%25%22%

Sarıyer win just 25% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esenler Erokspor53%
×Draw25%
Sarıyer22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.62
Sarıyer
0.96

Esenler Erokspor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Sarıyer
0.84

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Sarıyer
1.47

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
78%
Esenler Erokspor or Sarıyer
75%
Draw or Sarıyer
47%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
28%
Sarıyer wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
80%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
48%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
22%
Sarıyer 1+ goals
62%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
25%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
70%
Sarıyer (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
53%
level
25%
Sarıyer scores more
22%

Esenler Erokspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
Sarıyer
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esenler Erokspor vs Sarıyer — Match Preview

Esenler Erokspor face Sarıyer on August 16, 2026 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Esenler Erokspor host Sarıyer at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.