Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
16:00
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
9/20/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 8Esenler Stadium
42%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
42%26%32%

Fatih Karagümrük win just 31% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Esenler Erokspor42%
×Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.43
Fatih Karagümrük
1.22

Esenler Erokspor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 37 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
68%
Esenler Erokspor or Fatih Karagümrük
74%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
58%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
20%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
76%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
42%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
17%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
70%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
34%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
57%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
42%
level
26%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
32%

Esenler Erokspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Esenler Erokspor
Attack-heavy
Fatih Karagümrük
Balanced
54%Possession50%
81%Pass accuracyBiggest gap74%
12.4Shots13.4
1.69xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Esenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Esenler Erokspor
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 50%
2–52–10–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
Karagümrük
WWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esenler Erokspor host Fatih Karagümrük

September 20, 2026: Esenler Erokspor take on Fatih Karagümrük in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esenler Erokspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.