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Esenler Erokspor vs Bursaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
17:00
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
2/17/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Esenler Stadium
50%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
50%23%27%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor50%
×Draw23%
Bursaspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.76
Bursaspor
1.24

Esenler Erokspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 53 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Bursaspor
1.40

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Bursaspor
1.75

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
73%
Esenler Erokspor or Bursaspor
77%
Draw or Bursaspor
50%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
27%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
83%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
52%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
26%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
35%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
65%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
50%
level
23%
Bursaspor scores more
27%

Esenler Erokspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
Bursaspor
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esenler Erokspor host Bursaspor

February 17, 2027: Esenler Erokspor take on Bursaspor in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esenler Erokspor host Bursaspor at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.