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Esenler Erokspor vs Bursaspor — League #205 2026

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
4/13/2024League #205League #205 · Beyaz - 35Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Esenler Erokspor69%
×Draw17%
Bursaspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
2.46
Bursaspor
1.00

Esenler Erokspor creates 146% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
2.17
Bursaspor
1.00

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.00
Bursaspor
2.75

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
86%
Esenler Erokspor or Bursaspor
83%
Draw or Bursaspor
31%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
47%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
91%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
70%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
44%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
63%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
26%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
83%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 2.17 + Bursaspor defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.46

Bursaspor attack 1.00 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
69%
level
17%
Bursaspor scores more
14%

Esenler Erokspor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esenler Erokspor vs Bursaspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Bursaspor 5-1 in League #205 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu in İstanbul.