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Bursaspor vs Esenler Erokspor — League #205 2026

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
12/2/2023League #205League #205 · Beyaz - 16Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bursaspor33%
×Draw30%
Esenler Erokspor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
0.86

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.33
Esenler Erokspor
1.00

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
63%
Bursaspor or Esenler Erokspor
70%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
67%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
12%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
63%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
26%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
8%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
66%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
30%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
47%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 1.00 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Esenler Erokspor attack 0.86 + Bursaspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bursaspor scores more
33%
level
30%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
37%

Esenler Erokspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Bursaspor 1–1 Esenler Erokspor

Bursaspor and Esenler Erokspor drew 1-1 in League #205 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu in Bursa.