Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bandırmaspor

T. Kaçar 67'

Paulinho 13'

12/22/2024

1. Lig · Round 17Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor46%

×Draw25%

Bandırmaspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

Esenler Erokspor

1.54

Bandırmaspor

1.18

Esenler Erokspor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 110 away

1.77

creates per match

1.27

1.08

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

Bandırmaspor

1.27

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

Bandırmaspor

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

71%

Esenler Erokspor or Bandırmaspor

75%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

54%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

23%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

79%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

45%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

33%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

61%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

46%

level

25%

Bandırmaspor scores more

29%

Esenler Erokspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

T. Kaçar

Esenler Erokspor · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Mame Mor Faye

13'

Paulinho↳ H. Çiftçi

42'

Remi Mulumba

46'

J. Fernándes← S. Aytaç

46'

İ. Furat← O. Ceylan

51'

Idris Furat

51'

Óscar PinchiGoal cancelled

67'

T. Kaçar

72'

B. Aydoğmuş← A. Karaman

72'

C. Diniyev← Paulinho

73'

Rodrigo← L. Nomel

77'

K. Kesgin← H. Çiftçi

90+4'

E. Adıgüzel← K. Kesgin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EsenlerBandırmaspor

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots8

10Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target1

2Blocked4

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

436Total Passes374

318Accurate Passes270

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

1. Lig: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor

Esenler Erokspor and Bandırmaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on December 22, 2024.

Goals: Paulinho (13'), T. Kaçar (67').

Esenler Erokspor controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Esenler Erokspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor