Bandırmaspor 1–0 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

L. Diony 17'

4/27/2025

1. Lig · Round 36Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bandırmaspor37%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.38

Bandırmaspor

1.36

Esenler Erokspor

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

1.54

creates per match

1.71

1.05

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.54

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

1.05

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

62%

Bandırmaspor or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

63%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

17%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

74%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

39%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

16%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

75%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

40%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

49%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

37%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

38%

Esenler Erokspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

B. Messaoudi

Bandırmaspor · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

L. Diony↳ B. Messaoudi

45'

Ryan Jack

46'

Paulinho← D. Ndongala

58'

M. Özcan← R. Mulumba

59'

M. Albayrak← E. Korkmazoğlu

62'

Mücahit Albayrak

63'

H. Čataković← A. Karaman

68'

Hikmet Çiftçi

76'

Junior FernandesPenalty cancelled

77'

Junior Fernandes

77'

M. Louzif← M. Akpınar

80'

Óscar Pinchi← M. Mert

81'

B. Keser← O. Kayode

87'

F. Genç← L. Diony

87'

İ. Kaya← B. Messaoudi

90+4'

Hakan Bilgiç

90+8'

Benhur Keser

90+6'

Sakıb Aytaç

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BandırmasporEsenler

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots9

5Corners7

9Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target2

4Off Target3

0Blocked4

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

291Total Passes435

201Accurate Passes340

69%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1