Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esenler Erokspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
10/21/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundVefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Esenler Erokspor43%
×Draw24%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.67
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.42

Esenler Erokspor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.17

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.67
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.83

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
67%
Esenler Erokspor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
76%
Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
57%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
22%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
81%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
50%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
23%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals
76%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals
41%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
57%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.50 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.17 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
43%
level
24%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more
33%

Esenler Erokspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Esenler Erokspor and Arnavutköy Belediyespor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.