Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1–0 Esenler Erokspor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

9/10/2022

League #205 · Beyaz - 3Bayrampaşa Çetin Emeç Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor31%

×Draw39%

Esenler Erokspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnavutköy BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

0.68

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.69

Esenler Erokspor

0.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

0.38

creates per match

0.86

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.38

Esenler Erokspor

0.86

allows per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.50

Esenler Erokspor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under84
Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnavutköy Belediyespor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–117%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

40%60%2.5

16%84%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or draw

70%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or Esenler Erokspor

61%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

69%

Winning margin

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+

9%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals

50%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals

15%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals

3%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

49%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

15%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)

50%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 0.38 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.69

Esenler Erokspor attack 0.86 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more

31%

level

39%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

30%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Arnavutköy Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff