Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Ağrı 1970: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ağrı 1970

O. Ulas 90'

A. Karaman 72', 4'

10/30/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundEsenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Esenler Erokspor46%

×Draw21%

Ağrı 197033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchAğrı 1970

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.75

Esenler Erokspor

2.08

Ağrı 1970

1.75

Esenler Erokspor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.83

1.67

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.50

Ağrı 1970

1.83

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

Ağrı 1970

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Ağrı 1970 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

67%

Esenler Erokspor or Ağrı 1970

79%

Draw or Ağrı 1970

54%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

26%

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

87%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

61%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

34%

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals

83%

Ağrı 1970 2+ goals

52%

Ağrı 1970 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

58%

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.50 + Ağrı 1970 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ağrı 1970 attack 1.83 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

46%

level

21%

Ağrı 1970 scores more

33%

Esenler Erokspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

39'

72'

90'

Esenler

Ağrı

Manager: Osman Özköylü

Manager: Ahmet Özen