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Esenler Erokspor vs Ağrı 1970 — League #553 2026

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
11/30/2019League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 15Esenler Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esenler Erokspor33%
×Draw35%
Ağrı 197033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
0.83
Ağrı 1970
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.00
Ağrı 1970
0.67

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.00
Ağrı 1970
0.67

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Ağrı 1970 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
67%
Esenler Erokspor or Ağrı 1970
65%
Draw or Ağrı 1970
67%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
11%
Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
56%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
20%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
5%
Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
56%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
20%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
50%
Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.00 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ağrı 1970 attack 0.67 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
33%
level
35%
Ağrı 1970 scores more
33%

Esenler Erokspor at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esenler Erokspor vs Ağrı 1970

Ağrı 1970 beat Esenler Erokspor 1-0 in League #553 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Esenler Stadyumu in İstanbul.