Escorpiones Belén 0–5 AS Puma Generalena

Escorpiones Belén

FT

0 – 5

AS Puma Generalena

8/27/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Escorpiones Belén58%

×Draw21%

AS Puma Generalena21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchAS Puma Generalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.22

Escorpiones Belén

2.15

AS Puma Generalena

1.22

Escorpiones Belén creates 76% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 74 away

2.37

creates per match

0.92

1.52

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

AS Puma Generalena

0.92

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

AS Puma Generalena

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

AS Puma Generalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

79%

Escorpiones Belén or AS Puma Generalena

79%

Draw or AS Puma Generalena

42%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

36%

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

88%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

63%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

36%

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

70%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

34%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

73%

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

58%

level

21%

AS Puma Generalena scores more

21%

Escorpiones Belén at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff