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AS Puma Generalena vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
4 – 1
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
10/17/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena36%
×Draw25%
Escorpiones Belén39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.40
Escorpiones Belén
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
61%
AS Puma Generalena or Escorpiones Belén
75%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
64%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
16%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
75%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
41%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
17%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
77%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
43%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
48%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
36%
level
25%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
39%

Escorpiones Belén at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 4–1 Escorpiones Belén

AS Puma Generalena beat Escorpiones Belén 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.