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Escazucena vs Curridabat FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
3 – 3
Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
2/16/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7Estadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Escazucena49%
×Draw24%
Curridabat FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.73
Curridabat FC
1.22

Escazucena creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 32 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Curridabat FC
1.38

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Curridabat FC
1.94

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Curridabat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
73%
Escazucena or Curridabat FC
76%
Draw or Curridabat FC
51%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
27%
Curridabat FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
82%
Escazucena 2+ goals
52%
Escazucena 3+ goals
25%
Curridabat FC 1+ goals
70%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
34%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
65%
Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Escazucena scores more
49%
level
24%
Curridabat FC scores more
27%

Escazucena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escazucena vs Curridabat FC

Escazucena and Curridabat FC drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Piedades in Santa Ana.