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Curridabat FC vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
1 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
4/6/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 17Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC40%
×Draw26%
Escazucena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.39
Escazucena
1.25

Curridabat FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Escazucena
1.27

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Escazucena
1.68

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
66%
Curridabat FC or Escazucena
74%
Draw or Escazucena
60%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
19%
Escazucena wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
75%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
40%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
16%
Escazucena 1+ goals
71%
Escazucena 2+ goals
36%
Escazucena 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
54%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Escazucena defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Escazucena attack 1.27 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Escazucena scores more
34%

Curridabat FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Curridabat FC vs Escazucena

Curridabat FC beat Escazucena 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).