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Escazucena vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
1 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
9/3/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 7Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Escazucena54%
×Draw24%
AS Puma Generalena22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.72
AS Puma Generalena
0.99

Escazucena creates 74% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
78%
Escazucena or AS Puma Generalena
76%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
46%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
30%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
82%
Escazucena 2+ goals
51%
Escazucena 3+ goals
25%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
63%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
26%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
71%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.72

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Escazucena scores more
54%
level
24%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
22%

Escazucena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escazucena vs AS Puma Generalena

Escazucena and AS Puma Generalena drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.