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AS Puma Generalena vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
FT
2 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
10/23/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 16Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena41%
×Draw25%
Escazucena33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Puma Generalena
1.50
Escazucena
1.32

AS Puma Generalena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.28
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena
1.36
Escazucena
1.71

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw
67%
AS Puma Generalena or Escazucena
75%
Draw or Escazucena
59%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
20%
Escazucena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
78%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
44%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
19%
Escazucena 1+ goals
73%
Escazucena 2+ goals
38%
Escazucena 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
55%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Escazucena attack 1.28 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more
41%
level
25%
Escazucena scores more
33%

AS Puma Generalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 2–0 Escazucena

AS Puma Generalena beat Escazucena 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.