Escazucena 0–1 AD Guanacasteca: Result & Stats

Escazucena

FT

0 – 1

AD Guanacasteca

Y. Molina 22'

11/29/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Escazucena42%

×Draw25%

AD Guanacasteca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscazucenaExpected goals in this matchAD Guanacasteca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Escazucena

1.50

AD Guanacasteca

1.29

Escazucena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 50 away

1.51

creates per match

1.52

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Escazucena

1.51

AD Guanacasteca

1.52

allows per match

Escazucena

1.06

AD Guanacasteca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

AD Guanacasteca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw

67%

Escazucena or AD Guanacasteca

75%

Draw or AD Guanacasteca

58%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+

21%

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals

78%

Escazucena 2+ goals

44%

Escazucena 3+ goals

19%

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

72%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

37%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)

56%

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Escazucena scores more

42%

level

25%

AD Guanacasteca scores more

33%

Escazucena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Y. Molina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff