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AD Guanacasteca vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacastecaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
J. Bolanos 71'
12/6/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

AD Guanacasteca46%
×Draw25%
Escazucena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.53
Escazucena
1.16

AD Guanacasteca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 79 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.35
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.04
Escazucena
1.71

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
71%
AD Guanacasteca or Escazucena
75%
Draw or Escazucena
54%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
23%
Escazucena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
78%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
45%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
20%
Escazucena 1+ goals
69%
Escazucena 2+ goals
32%
Escazucena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
61%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 52 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.35 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Escazucena attack 1.28 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
46%
level
25%
Escazucena scores more
29%

AD Guanacasteca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
K. Chinchilla
59'
K. Chinchilla
71'
J. Bolanos
76'
L. Adams
76'
L. Adams

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Guanacasteca vs Escazucena

AD Guanacasteca beat Escazucena 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on December 6, 2020.

Goals: J. Bolanos (71').

The match was played at Estadio Chorotega in Nicoya.